11th January: Daily Forex Trend
Thursday, January 11, 2018
TIME: 9:40 am IST
DAILY FOREX TRENDS
(inter-bank prices below)
After the bank of Japan, it is turn of Chinese to drag the US dollar down. Chinese proposed reduction of investment in US treasuries a long term negative for the greenback. Euro has to break and trade over 1.2092 after the European central bank press conference today for 1.2500 in the short term. There will be 300-400 pips either side move in euro and sterling against the US dollar today.
A weaker US dollar has saved the rupee from further weakness. The government increasing the limit of foreign investment in single brand retail will result in massive inflows in India. It will also help India in coping with global energy shock (if any) this year. Fundamentally rupee should not gain against the US dollar.
Exporters, importers and traders in currency markets need to remain on the sidelines today. There will be two way price moves. Monday US markets are closed.
US dollar-Indian Rupee (usd/inr CMP 63.7150): Support: 63.5325. Resistance: 63.8025. Key short term resistance is at 63.8025. Only a break of 63.8025 will trigger another wave of rise to 64.025 and 64.2725., However in case usd/inr does not break 63.8025 by Tuesday, then it will fall to 63.0650. The next four days are very crucial for the rupee.
Euro/Indian Rupee (Euro/inr CMP 76.1375): Support: 75.9225 Resistance: 76.2425 and 76.4975. Euro/inr needs to break and trade over 76.4675 to rise to 77.2325. Sell off/bearish trend will be there if (a) Euro/inr does not break and trade over 76.4675 by tomorrow. Exporters cover/hedge twenty five percent of their near term receivables and use a trailing stop loss below 75.6425 for the rest.
UK Pound/Indian Rupee (Gbp/inr CMP 85.9975): Support: 85.8850. Resistance: 86.2675 and 86.4625. Pound needs to trade over 85.8850 till tomorrow to rise to 86.6525 and 87.0175. Sellers will be there only below 85.8850. Exporters take a chance and use a trailing stop loss below 85.4375 for their near term receivables.
Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee (Jpy/inr CMP 57.03): Support: 56.77. Resistance: 57.38. Yen can rise to 58.86 by next week as long as it trades over 56.40.
Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP 1.1950): Support: 1.1906-1.1933 Resistance: 1.1981 and 1.2041.Euro/usd needs to trade over 1.1863-1.1933 zone till tomorrow to rise to 1.2077 and 1.2217. Those are long use a trailing stop loss below 1.1863. Short term bearish trend will be there only if euro/usd does not break 1.2077 by tomorrow.
UK Pound/US dollar (gbp/usd CMP 1.3499): Support: 1.3436-1.3481. Resistance: 1.3545-1.3605-1.3625. Cable can fall to 1.3436 and 1.3351 as long as it trades below 1.3545. Only a break of 1.3545 will result in a rise. Sterling will see another wave of rise if and only if it manages to trade over 1.3604 after the European central bank press conference.
US dollar/Japanese Yen (usd/jpy CMP 111.72): Support: 111.25 and 111.58. Resistance: 111.96 and 112.37. Yen can fall to 110.92 and 109.79 as long as it trades below 112.05. Only a break of 112.05 will result in a rise to 112.69 and 113.37.
US dollar/Indonesia Rupiah (usd/idr CMP 13420.00): Support: 13402.80 Resistance: 13447.20 and 13478.20. Rupiah if it falls today and tomorrow can target 13323.50 and 13229 in the short term. I will prefer to remain on the sidelines. There can be 150-200 one side move from 13419.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.