Forex Report for Exporters and Importers: 12th September 2018
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
TIME: 9:28 am IST
DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
US US PPI numbers today, bank of England meeting, ECB meeting and US CPI numbers tomorrow will be the key. Just trade in the technical and ignore the news. Traders will be looking forward to December interest rate hike as September is already factored in by the markets.
Right now the focus of the global markets is on hurricane Florence which is expected to enter US east coast by tomorrow. The damage and its impact on US economy (if any) will be the key. Markets are now assessing the job losses in China and slowdown in Chinese economy due to Trump and his trade wars. The next four days till Monday will be very volatile for the currency markets. Cable will rise as Brexit deal is certain.
The renewed rise in global crude oil price will act a headache to Indian economy and the people of India. The government does not want to reduce crude oil prices as it wants to maintain fiscal prudence. The political mudsling on petrol price, defence deals, bad loans of banks etc is now the daily headline on newspapers as well as googlenews. Long term global investors will be on the sidelines. Interest rate by the RBI next month is more or less a done deal. Tomorrow Indian financial markets are closed due to Ganesh Chaturthi. Traders will start taking positions for Friday. Spot Value dated sifts to Monday. Watch for profit taking in long usd/inr positons before holiday of tomorrow.
US dollar-Indian Rupee (usd/inr CMP 72.8650):
One Support: 72.6275
One Resistance: 73.0100
- Only a break of 73.0100 will result in a rise to 73.1825 and 73.5775.
- Key support is at 72.6275. Sellers will be there below 72.6725
- Momentum is very bullish for the rupee at the moment.
US dollar/Indonesia Rupiah (usd/idr CMP 14893.20):
One Support: 14814.70
One Resistance: 14906.0
- There will be another wave of rise only over 14906.00 to 14968 and 15035.
- Trend is neutral.
- Bearish trend will be there below 14782.00
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Why Do I ask exporters and importers to use trailing stop loss? Some day’s currency markets are very volatile. Trend (short term as well as medium term) change at the flick of coin without any advance warning. In order to make the most of the volatility it is preferable to use trailing stop loss using technical analysis as basis. Those exporters and importers do not wish to take the risk, should take a forward cover or hedge in future and options market if export or import price near cost.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.