Forex Report for Exporters and Importers: 1st November 2018
Thursday, November 1, 2018
TIME: 09:20 am IST
DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
UK Pound is oversold and should rise further. I believe that it has formed a short term bottom. Brexit deal on financial service sector should be positive for cable. The fine prints are not yet known. But it will reduce the expected job losses in financial service sector in UK. I expect US dollar index to correct anytime till Monday either just before the US senate votes or after the US senate votes. Emerging market currencies should gain as lower crude oil prices reduce some of the problems. Till the FOMC meet on 8th November, all currency market trend could be misleading. I expect the US dollar to pare some of this year gains.
NDA government is trying to soothe the negative speculation of resigning of RBI governor. The damage has been done. Short term traders and investors will be cautious investing in India. Long term, India will be the growth story. Governments have come and gone, but people of India have adapted to changing circumstances and grown. Selected are still a very good long term story. Bond yields in India may have formed a long term top in October.
US dollar-Indian Rupee (usd/inr CMP 73.7950):
One Support: 73.6175
One Resistance: 74.0850
- Rupee can fall to 73.6175 and 73.4825 as long as it trades below 74.0850.
Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP 1.1345):
One Support: 1.1274
One Resistance: 1.1403
- It needs to trade over 1.1274 till tomorrow to rise to 1.1490 and 1.1633.
- Small sell off will be there below 1.1315.
- Quick rise will be there over 1.1356 today.
UK Pound/US dollar (gbp/usd CMP 1.2851):
One Support: 1.2820
One Resistance: 1.2880
- Cable can rise to 1.2992 and 1.3133 by tomorrow as long as it trades over 1.2767.
- Trend is bullish.
US dollar/Japanese Yen (usd/jpy CMP 112.87):
One Support: 112.60
One Resistance: 113.11
- Until and unless 113.50-115.50 zone is not broken, chances of a correction to 107.10 before the close of the year will be very high.
- Small sell off will be there only below 112.60.
US dollar/Indonesia Rupiah (usd/idr CMP 15160.00):
One Support: 15150.50
One Resistance: 15203.00
- There will be a technical breakdown below 15150.50 to 15098 and 14881.
- Use a sell on rise strategy with a stop loss over 15260 for next week.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.